K| A SYNOPSIS OF SELECT GLOBAL POLITICO-ECONOMIC ISSUES

Dissecting the Global Environment

Gazing at our world we can readily observe changes that are uncharacteristic of what we observed in the recent past. I am referring to both the quantity and style quality of such changes.  Both of these depict the dynamic character of such changes and the rate at which they are taking place in our world.  These changes are being instrumental in developing a new world environment which is likely to foster global relationships destined to bring forth a different world.

The changes that I am thinking of are in all areas of human development.  I mean in the areas of cross-national permeation, economic development, socio-cultural integration and global governance.  These are complex topics that require in-depth analysis.  I will try to offer a fair yet synoptic review of the above.

The International Political Environment

The collapse of the Soviet Union and Sovietism around the world gave an impetus to the normal evolution of world societies.  The 1990 speech by George H.W. Bush in which he coined the term New World Order (NOW) was indeed predictive of a new world reality.  The end of the Cold War brought about the Russian financial crisis and the collapse of the Ruble. 

The U.S. was the only country with international institutional power with which to influence political systems and promote world peace. However, the New World Order soon became “Disorder” as a result of regional wars.  For instance, the Gulf war, the breakup of Yugoslavia, the emergence of terrorism and international political disarray.  It seems as though the U.S. was unable to institutionalize cross-national relations and mute expedient national interests, achieving a relative optimum balance among countries. 

The creation of the European Union (EU), which began with the Treaty of Rome of 1957, seems to have been a notable success because it achieved to bring peace and relative prosperity to the European continent which had been devastated by frequent wars.  Regional integration, like that of the European Union, is not possible unless the member states’ political systems are similar.  For instance, no member state of the European Union could revert to dictatorship or a Marxist rule.  EU’s supranational arrangement, evident in the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights, is a safeguard of the character of the political system of its member states. 

Also, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been successful with enhancing political cooperation avoiding long-standing conflicts and untrustworthy relations among the various ASEAN governments. 

A “Newer” World Order

If we assume that the New World Order confirmed the U.S. as the world leader, the present status of the world order seems to indicate that the political world leadership of the U.S. is absent. 

Regional tensions, leading to local conflict, have produced migration which has caused political instability and local social upheaval such as discrimination, cross-ethnic disputes, economic strife, and more.  Such conflict has given credence to the lack of U.S. leadership and the evolution of a polyarchic environment. 

U.S. global leadership is being challenged by new countries who have seen the opportunity to dispel U.S.’s historic leadership and become antagonists to the U.S. in all facets of leadership, that is, economic, political and military.  For instance, U.S. sanctions are no longer as effective as they had been in the past.  The reason is simply that unilateralism is not effective in an openly-trading polyethnic environment.

Moreover, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the internationalization of the U.S. and most of the countries, as well as, the development of technology which has become universal have tested the world supreme influence of the U.S. and its power instituted since the end of the 2^nd World War.  In the days before the collapse of the Soviet Union, before 1989, the world was agreeably divided in East and West. Our polyarchic contemporary environment would not and could not use the above formula with which to govern the world.

The Rise of China’s New World Order

Since 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), international trade has increased from a reported $6.5 trillion to $28.5 trillion to date (2022), according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).  After joining the WTO China, in an environment of free trade, benefited from a large labor force, reduced tariffs and other barriers to trade and large inflows of foreign capital (FDI). 

During the global recession of 2007-2009 China’s GDP grew nearly 9% as the U.S. GDP declined by about 4%.  This immense economic growth has thrusted China in the world as a global player confirming its geostrategic importance.  In addition, the strategic goal of China to develop and surpass the level of technological prowess of the U.S. has revealed a “Newer World Order” which identifies a new global system in which there are several global players known as Polyarchy. 

This new global environment is likely to create seismic effects in the relationship of those global players.  Although the future evolution of global antagonism is difficult to delineate, we can conjecture that the areas which will likely produce conflict are:

Political systems; Technological systems; Economic antagonism; and, Cultural Value systems. Notwithstanding the collapse of the Soviet Union and the trend toward democratization of former Marxist countries, a number of countries have remained revolutionary socialist characterized by authoritarianism or autocracy. 

Alignment of political thought in the global environment will be long and agonizing.  Advancement in technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be decisive in allocating supreme power to the global player who might achieve a differential advantage in it. 

Economic antagonism will be intense as global players will seek to establish favorable economic position in the global market. 

Global players’ value systems will be tested undergoing refinement, as trans-culturalism will be seen as an effective way to increasing relative cross-cultural integration.  Deep-seated values originating from Faith will likely be the last frontier to increasing relative cognitive cross-cultural integration. 

The question that global policy-makers should be asking is: Are we moving toward a system of global unification?

Author: CGP .+.