The Recent History of World Governments
My Country Life Cycle (CLC) theory suggests that a country goes through distinct stages of evolution. Those are: Genesis - Growth - Maturity - Decline. Strong countries usually enjoy elongated periods depending on their endemic character and their competitive environment. The World’s chaotic behavior may increase or decrease a country’s length of its CLC, specifically its maturity stage. The paradigm of America is a case in point. Due to developments in technology, telecommunications and transportation globalization has increased producing chaotic behavior. This has resulted in colossal challenges to the global leadership of America. Some years ago, Lester C. Thurow, professor of management and economics at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology and dean of MIT's Sloan School of Management, said: "The Byzantine empire survived for about 1100 years, the British empire was around for approximately 400 years. After 70 or so years America is beginning to decline. What is happening to America?"
Consistent with the Country Life Cycle (CLC) theory the historic struggle of countries for
global leadership affects the length of the Maturity stage of the country’s
cycle. For instance, 1939 to 1945 Germany attempted to claim world-wide leadership by inciting the 2nd
World War. The Power that defeated Germany was America which became the World
Power. Now, China is poised to defeat America and become the next World Power. China is the only global power with the intent
to reshape the international order using its economic, diplomatic, military,
and technological capabilities to do it. These events legitimize the CLC theory. Although we may have illustrated the process of evolution of the life cycle of world powers we cannot claim that we know more than that.
A less predictable global environment is a challenge to the American global leadership, as China and other global powers are positioned to be antagonistic with each other for dominance. For instance, China is poised to overtake the American economy by 2030, creating a differential advantage in technology. Excess government spending is threatening the status of America as an economic powerhouse.
Signs of decline of the American society
Cultural ambivalence is growing due
to pressures of multiculturalism which has brought about dilution of American
values. Generation Z, which is more than
25% of the American population, have been born in an internet environment and
have totally embraced social media. Ethnicity for generation Z is not important. Instead, it embraces “diversity”, ignoring traditional
values. Dilution of American traditional values, arising mainly from multiculturalism, has led to the balkanization of the American political system and the fragmentation of the American society. Discontinuity of traditional political discourse and cultural divergence are a definitive challenge that America has not had experience in before. Americans are polarized and a chasm has been created between the younger and the older generations. The younger generations are becoming increasingly "progressive" whereas the older generations remain "conservative." Overconsumption has given rise to unreasonable expectations vis-a-vis normal consumption. Such reality has promoted a less energetic and hard-working labor force. Unfettered free trade with China has fueled the noted American overconsumption, making it a retardant to America's endemic economic development. (This same principle has been observed in the trade between Germany and Greece.)
American Worries
A less predictable global environment is a challenge to the American global leadership, as China and other global powers are positioned to be antagonistic with each other for dominance. For instance, China is poised to overtake the American economy by 2030, creating a differential advantage in technology. Excess government spending is threatening the status of America as an economic powerhouse.
COVID has cost America around $11 to $15 trillion. The Federal Reserve has printed $13
trillion. Such spending has created inflationary pressures. The 2022 Debt-to-GDP ratio is 124%. Such level of debt threatens the integrity of the Dollar and the stability of global trade. The status of the Dollar as the
international reserve currency may be threatened by the rise of China and its
Chinese currency, the Yuan, which the IMF has recognized as representing a
strong economy. It is worth noting that there
are efforts to conduct international payments using currencies other than the Dollar, like the Yuan and the Euro. Trade transactions on energy between China and Russia are made using local currencies,
that is, the Yuan and/or the Ruble. Furthermore, very recently Russia said that unfriendly European nations
will have to pay in Rubles for their gas imports.
Possible Corrective
Strategies
To avoid the worsening of global
chaos and the potential loss of national identity countries should:
A note on the Evolution of Global Governance
At the micro level, there is a
tendency for “Cultural Conservatism” which has resulted from the confrontation between
migration and nationalism. This has introduced global fragmentation, which has given credence to the sentiment of incurring anti-globalization. This reality will result either in greater global conflict or it will simply delay
the inevitability of globalization, given its favorable economic synergies. At the macro level, global governance
is being subtly promoted. National sovereignty
and authority are being supplanted by a new global supranational framework. For instance, the World Health Organization may
be on track to receive a mandate by the Biden administration to override
individual countries’ national health care policies. Also, on economic issues, the World Economic
Forum in Davos is becoming a supranational institution for international exchange
on issues of the global economy, as the number of heads of state who participate
in the exchange keeps increasing. These
are precursors for creating a global government.
Intertwinement of the Global Economy
is hard to reverse, given that technology, communications, transportation and
international trade are an integral part of an increasingly converging
world. Increasing chaos in global governance will tend to work toward global integration rather than the other way around. Analogously, exemplifying from the concept of Gestalt perception psychology which suggests that the human brain seeks to
integrate antithetical concepts and gaps in a way that achieves closure and eliminates chaos. Therefore, there is a
greater likelihood to eliminate chaos through globalization and not through its inversion.
Possible Corrective
Strategies
- Embrace nation-centered policies.
- Contain
international illegal migration, by supporting local economic development.
- Bring economic returns and cultural values to an optimum balance.
